Get well Rene Saguisag

The memory just can't be erased. Rene Saguisag was one of the finest symbols in the fight against dictatorship in the 80's. He saved many lives and suffered many indignities. Of one thing we can be sure: he remained true to the call to protect the down-trodden. Get well. Our condolences on the passing of Dulce.

six paradoxes and a little candor

According to some pundits, the fabric of our society is about to be shred to pieces, even if there is no sign of any thread which can be woven to clothe us while we try to find a warm home henceforth.

Poverty and discontent are widespread, as is confusion. Let me cite some paradoxes:

1. The economy is improving while average family incomes are declining;
2. Average family incomes are declining even as more and more are going abroad to remit incomes to their families;
3. Remittances are increasing while real incomes are decreasing;
4. The people who go abroad are unhappy but continue to keep ties with the country;
5. They continue to keep ties with the country but their families remain unhappy;
6. They are unhappy but they continue to tolerate GMA.
   

More than ten years ago, a friend who spent more than six years in Moscow to study cinematography shared this joke with me:

The 6 paradoxes of socialism

1. there is no unemployment but nobody works;
2. nobody works but everybody gets paid;
3. everybody gets paid but the shops are empty;
4. the shops are empty but all get what they need;
5. they all get what they need but remain unhappy;
6. they remain unhappy but they all vote for the communist party.

The comparison might be a little stretched, but there are a few parallels. Let me be candid. I took part, as a communist then, in securing a scholarship for the friend above in Moscow. I have many unanswered questions about what may come next if we kick out Gloria. But I can't stand the lying that passes off as governance.

To ANC's Marieton Pacheco: did they bend your rmind?

Members of the Psychic Entertainment Network were featured in ANC yesterday. One remote-sensor, a mind reader, and a telekineticist. The mind-reader begged off from displaying his skills. Yes, the trio were careful to describe the abilities as 'skills' rather than as special powers.
The remote-sensor, with a metal blindfold, was able to pick milk from a set of five glasses; the other four contained water. In his commercial act, he said, the four would have contained acid.
The fork bender impressed Pacheco because after quick hand-wringing movements, he seemed to have bent the teeth and even the handle. Had I been there, I would have re-arranged the tests to eliminate loopholes in the demonstrations.
I would have placed a black hood on the remote-sensor and a plastic sheet in front of the bender.
Here's an informative video from Michael Shermer, my favorite skeptic, on spoonbending.

Here's my challenge to Marieton. If you claim you were not taken in for a good ride, let's invite the PEN at my expense and at a place and time of their choosing.
If they pass my tests, good. We can hire them to lecture to all the bloggers out there, brimming with self-importance, to hone their skills enough so that we can finally concentrate on GMA, and force her to leave Malacanang telekinetically. Deal?

Dead but not buried

If you're reading this coming in from the Halloween holidays, let me tell you this. If you thought Speaker Joe de Venecia will no longer be around, either you are dead, or just dead wrong. While you were away, the presidential security guard (PSG) was able to thwart another Palace coup. By the dead asking why she had not joined them as she had promised years ago.

The dead but not buried.

After all, the dead represent the largest constituency in Philipine politics.

Ermita's autumn in New York

To the chagrin of some quarters who had hoped he would no longer show up in the Palace, chief of staff Eduardo Ermita returned to his post yesterday, but continued to fuel the ever louder murmurs of the supposed irreconcilable rift with DILG secretary Ronaldo "Goebbels" Puno. The issue was no longer the bribes scandal allegedly masterminded by the latter without a by your leave from the latter.

The issue this time was over who sent the list of nominees for the Comelec vacancies to the poll body. Irregular, Ermita said. Normal, Goebbels shot back in a fashion which somehow looks credible because he seems to really believe what he is saying. "Rift, what rift?' he asked in the manner of one who's savoring the upper hand but who self-consciously wants to look magnanimous.

Ermita was at least greeted by a congratulatory press release (warning:you might find the image offensive) on the success of his mission from the Palace, based on his own account. Ah but for the small kindnesses one gives oneself in times like these.

For it was Fall in New York, where he was dogged by the pesky human rights activists, and the aunt of Jonas Burgos, who confronted him in a forum, where he had
a civil but tense exchange with former PCGG commissioner and defense assistant secretary Ruben Carranza Jr., now a fellow at the International Center for Transitional Justice (ICTJ).

Ruben, a former student of UN special rapporteur Philip Alston, whose report on the Philippines was dismissed by Malacanang, says he can't believe Alston believed anything Ermita said at the meeting in the UN.

The Erap pardon in perspective

The most erudite analysis of the Erap pardon I've read so far is this post from Leon, the boy blogger from outer space. He should know. His dad was in the thick of heroic efforts to recover Marcos ill-gotten wealth when there was still a hint of a glimmer of a small hope in the GMA administration.

Here, Leon gives the tongue to palace mouth Ignacio Bunye as the latter made the official announcement.

Glorietta 2: the gas blast was a palace conspiracy

An independent team of undercover probers has published its report on the Glorietta incident.

Without question, the blast was a palace conspiracy to divert attention from the scandals facing the administration.

The spooks in their safe house

Erap in his own tortured words, days before the pardon

The Philippine Onion has this exclusive on the state of Erap's mind in the days prior to his release. Who are you to judge him?

Pardon me, madam, but I can't pardon you

Just less than thirty minutes ago, this man announced that former President Joseph Estrada, whose impeachment and subsequent extra-constitutional ouster I supported, was granted executive clemency, his civil and political rights restored.

While I feel sympathy and compassion for the former president, I believe the aspiration for justice and fairness for the population at large trumps these feelings.

I probably had sleepless nights after I 'stole' a few pesos from my mother's wallet to buy cigarets in childhood. My mother eventually pardoned me, but that was just between the two of us. I will never be charged and convicted of plunder, as I have no political ambitions, low or high, and thus will never have the chance to be pardoned.

Mrs. Arroyo, your purported act of compassion and reconciliation also shows how weak and cold you are, because the move cannot but be motivated by the preroragatives of political survival. If and when you are convicted of high crimes in the future, we will not pardon you.

Here's the transcript of the announcement, courtesy of but without permission from DJB:

Whereas this administration has a policy of releasing prisoners who have reached the age of 70,

Whereas Joseph Ejercito Estrada has been under detention for six and a half years,

Whereas Joseph Ejercito Estrada has publicly committed to no longer seek any elective position or public office,

In view hereof, and pursuant to the authority conferred upon me by the Constitution, I hereby grant executive clemency to Joseph Ejercito Estrada, convicted of plunder by the Sandiganbayan of plunder and imposed the penalty of reclusion perpetua.

He is hereby restored to his civil and political rights. The forfeitures imposed by the Sandiganbayan remain in force and in full, including all writs and processes issued by the Sandiganbayan in pursuance hereof, except for the bank accounts he owned before his tenure as President.

Upon acceptance of this pardon by Joseph Ejercito Estrada, this pardon shall take effect. Given under my hand, at the City of Manila, this 25th day of October, in the year of our Lord, 2007.

Signed,
Gloria M. Arroyo

Attested,
Ignacio R. Bunye,
Acting Executive Secretary.

Are you planning to pardon this guy too?

NBN: intrigue and witness-tampering as hearings resume

The NBN hearings resume today. These two stories Paid witness to appear at NBN probe---Puentebella which came first, and Lacson:ex-ZTE consultant asks money for testimony suggest witness tampering, and there seems to be agreement as to the facts cited by the admin congressman and Ping Lacson. But what's the real story?

Glorietta 2: After bomb theory bombs, nature and source of gas remains mystery

Notwithstanding their hedging about continuing to look at all angles, the authorities yesterday virtually ruled out a bomb blast in the Glorietta 2 incident. For NW, the absence of a blast crater or any other signs of shear and gashes on the equipment and walls of the basement is a sufficient condition to discard the bomb hypothesis. The sample testing positive for RDX is irrelevant, although doubting Juans and Juanas don't think so.

Crude but fairly informative and convincing presentations were issued by the PNP - Inter-agency anti-arson task force (IATF) Thunderbolt to the media here and here. There are diagrams, charts, photographs (many without labels and captions) and in sum the presentations are much more than I expected from our police, whose efforts must be recognized. The only spoilers are the faces, in news clips, of security adviser Norberto Gonzales, DILG secretary Ronaldo Puno, and palace mouth Ignacio Bunye, shameless clowns who had engaged in earlier fear-mongering.

Ayala Land casts doubt on theory

At noon yesterday, Ayala Land president presented an enumeration of facts to the press (and posted in their website at my request), tending to cast doubt on the gas explosion hypothesis. ABS-CBN chose to spin the story as Ayala Land Rejects PNP industrial blast theory which is a reasonable interpretation. The enumeration was reportedly finished only Tuesday night and shared with the authorities only yesterday morning. It appears that these so-called facts do not have much relevance to the preliminary findings. Here's a list of the facts Ayala presented:

GLORIETTA 2 BASEMENT

1. Basement dimensions: 178 sqm floor area; approx. ceiling height: 2.28m

2. Diesel fuel tank: Last used in June during last power outage; capacity: approx. 14,000 liters; estimated content on day of incident: 6,000 liters; the flash point of diesel contained is 72 degrees Celsius and auto ignition temperature is 220 degrees Celsius. There are no maintenance reports or observations by maintenance personnel of any aberrations to the diesel tank.

3. Fuel transfer pump: transfers diesel fuel from storage tank at basement 2 to day tank at the roof deck.

4. Ventilation: basement is ventilated by air entering the approx. 2.4m x 2.4m opening at stairwell connected to delivery bay area

5. Ambient room temperature: estimated range from 28 to 30 degrees Celsius

6. Grease trap: separates grease from wastewater entering the sump pit; maintained daily for one hour together with cleaning of basement.

7. Sump pits (there are two types of sump pit):

a. Kitchen sump pit (approx .1.5m x 1.5m x 2m): Wastewater from kitchens of five restaurants in Glorietta 2 enters the sump pit. The grease trap separates the grease from the wastewater (grease is extracted daily, every morning). A pump in kitchen sump pit pumps out wastewater to the main city sewer line automatically (there is a standby sump pump).

b. Waste sump pit (approx. 1.5m x 1.5m x 2m): Wastewater from toilets in a portion of Glorietta 2 is dumped into sump pit (21 water closets; 20 lavatories; 8 urinals). Due to the nature of customer use of toilets in restaurants, waste is seldom solid and mostly liquid (per our sewage expert opinion approx. 98% liquid). Wastewater enters sump pit and is pumped out to street sewer by a sump pump (there is a standby sump pump). Therefore, there is constant flow of mainly liquid wastewater from the toilets into the sump pit and on to the city sewer. Wastewater entering the sump pit stays in the sump pit for less than 24 hours. The usual decomposition process brought about by large amounts of solid matter in house septic tanks does not occur in this commercial sump pit.

The major element casting doubt on the gas explosion theory is the claim in item 7, which tends to show that there could not have been any significant methane generated by the sump pits, and the claim in the conference that there was nothing out of the ordinary reported by maintenance personnel in regard to the waste water system (the two sump pits and corresponding pumps). However, a maintenance man interviewed by police belies the latter claim. In regard to the amount of methane present, it depends on how much waste had accumulated contrary to the claim of a 24-hour maximum residence time. Also, it is possible that gas could have come from the sewer lines to which the pumps were connected (backflow) and this would have provided enough methane.

What can we make of the diesel tank and the role of the fuel in the explosion? The photos in the presentation show a rupture in the lateral joints of, and a hole in the steel plate covering. There appear to be no signs of soot anywhere. The diesel flash point seems irrelevant here, this parameter indicating the lowest temperature which generates enough vapor which, alone, can be ignited, but at which combustion stops if the ignition source is withdrawn. At temperatures below flash point, there is still some vaporization, and if the tank had a leak (not evidenced by police photos), these vapors would have escaped and mixed with the more volatile methane. The auto-ignition temperature is entirely irrelevant. If the tank had no leak, then, I suspect the methane ignited first, heating the tank, vaporizing the contents very quickly, rupturing the cover. The diesel fumes mix with the methane in part of the explosion. If you look inside the dieseltank you'd see that there is some fuel left (but not yet measured). The explosion could have bled the air dry of oxygen very quickly and/or had snuffing effect.

The claim that maintenance personnel reported no aberration with the diesel tank is also not very useful, since the last time the generators were on was in June.

In any case, what should be the most intellectually satisfying proof of the gas explosion theory would be a computer simulation or real scale model simulation or both.

RDX again

To some, the RDX positive test constitutes a loose end. I suppose the foreign investigators would have tested a sample from the same material (found on the ground floor by an Army man) but could not replicate the result. That should be the end of that. No need to explain further that RDX is also found in other (non-explosive) substances.

In the press conference, no reporters confronted Ayala Land spokesman Alfie Reyes about his earlier televised claim the basement was under the control of the Makati Supermarket operators, which he no longer repeated.

Mr. Ayala said the corporation would do right whatever the final findings. While it is easy for them to purchase reasonable doubt at a reasonable cost in the criminal and civil proceedings that will follow, let's hope he keeps his word.

(Glorietta 2 constitutes a mere 0.34 percent of total Ayala Land revenues).

How a Filipino insurgent was tortured. Damn, I wish our confirmation process was like theirs

I've been following the confirmation hearings (on C-Span and the NYT) of Michael Mukasey, George W.'s nominee to replace the unlamented Alberto Gonzales, and wish that our processes were as rigorous.

Last night, Mukasey was grilled by senators (mostly Democrats, among them Stephen Whitehouse of Rhode Island)) about his views on executive privilege, non-disclosure agreements, and the public's right to information. His answers were diametrically opposed to those of his predecessor.

However, Mukasey failed to assuage fears in regard to the use of torture in extracting information from terrorism suspects. He hedged big time in regard to water-boarding, saying that if water-boarding is determined to be torture, then it would be unconstitutional. The senators could not extract any more information on his views on the matter, stopping short of physically and mentally torturing him on the matter any further.

What really caught my attention was the account recounted by one of the senators of how a US soldier was prosecuted for using water-boarding on a Filipino insurgent in 1901.

I wish I could get my hands on the transcripts of Raul Gonzales's confirmation hearings, though I understand that he has never been confirmed and that the Gloria just keeps re-appointing her sycophant on a temporary basis. What is the limit to the executive's power to reappoint? I don't know, but this clearly runs counter to what the Constitution intends.

I am tempted to make a bigotted remark about people with the surname Gonzales, but I know better because I have so many friends with that surname and I have no wish to inflict a tortured argument on you.

Glorietta 2: accidents, beliefs, surprises, and relief

"The opinions for which people are willing to fight all belong to one of three classes which this scepticism condemns. When there are rational grounds for an opinion, people are content to set them forth and wait for them to operate. In such cases people do not hold their opinions with passion; they hold them calmly, and set forth their reasons quietly. The opinions that are held with passion are always those for which no ground exists; indeed the passion is the measure of the holder's lack of rational conviction. Opinions in politics and religion are almost always held passionately.

The extent to which beliefs are based upon evidence is very much less than believers suppose."

Bertrand Russell in Sceptical Essays

My early doubts about the bomb hypothesis in the Glorietta blast arose after seeing the footage of the area and the anecdotes of those in the vicinity during the incident, and early reports that the blast had been determined to have emanated from the basement, and assumptions about the 'reasonableness' or cost-minimizing behavior of terrorists, and the materials and equipment the basement was said to contain. For example, why would terrorists plant a bomb in the basement (one investigator speculated that 10 kilos of C4 could have been used) when much more impact could be expected at better locations?)

In my earlier post, I said:

I have not closed my mind to a methane-based explosion, more consistent with the footage I’ve seen. Likely I will be proven wrong.

At least three media reports today tend to lend more support to the accident hypothesis: the Inquirer's, ABS-CBN's, and GMA.tv's investigators doubt bomb theory. What stands out in all these reports are the early signs of NCR police director Geary Barias's independence. Whether this is due to character or fear of being contradicted by parallel efforts of foreign investigative agencies, it is still a hopeful sign that the real facts will come out from the official probe. We must aslo note that Barias's refusal to rule out the accident hypothesis appears to be a direct and courageous contradiction of the Gloria and the Venable and silly national security adviser, who claimed that terrorists were on a fund-raising effort by way of demonstration, perversely trying to make political hay out of the tragedy. Surprisingly too, Senator Panfilo Lacson, whose democratic impulses I doubt, counseled circumspection and sobriety in contrast to the amateurish, naive and messianic Senator Trillanes, whose belief in the incredible Operation Greenbase made me cringe in disbelief. (Disclosure: Geary Barias's activist brother Manny, with a medical practice in the US, is a long-time friend).

Here's part of GMA.tv's report:

On whether the blast might have been caused by other factors besides a bomb, Barias said "anything is possible."

He said investigators confirmed that the origin of the explosion was located at the basement of the Glorietta 2 and not on the first floor.

Barias said there was a possibility that the blast was caused by an accident rather than an explosive device. "We are also looking into that. All angles are being explored."

Last Saturday before a National Security Council meeting in Camp Crame, Barias told reporters that investigators took samples from the first floor and found no trace of nitrates.

"The explosion damaged the floor, under which revealed an underground which serves as a tool room. There was supposed to have been an oil, water, and grease depot there," Barias said then.

Later in that meeting, the PNP Crime Laboratory and the Philippine National Police (PNP) Bomb Data Center said they found traces of RDX, an ingredient used in explosives including C4 which is used by the military.

But on Sunday, Barias said that the presence of RDX would have to be verified by "additional testing."

In a television interview, Alfie Reyes, corporate spokesman of Ayala Land Inc. which owns the mall, said he would leave the issue of what caused the blast to investigators.

He clarified that the basement where the blast might have originated was being occupied by one of their tenants at the Makati Supermarket. "We are also trying to obtain information from them because they are the ones who know what is in that basement and what activities, if any, occurred in that basement," Reyes said.

He added that the Makati Supermarket had access and security control over the basement.

An investigator at the area told the Philippine Daily Inquirer Sunday afternoon that tests done by bomb experts from the US revealed no traces of RDX or any other explosive material. "Their results are negative for any solid explosive material. They have a different style [of detecting RDX]."

The investigator, who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to reveal details of the investigation, also explained that the Americans took a swab sample of the explosive material from the bombsite and smudged it on the TV screen of an analysis machine which gave them a chemical composition of the sample. "We asked them to calibrate their machine and try again. They still got a negative result," the source said.

The PNP Crime Laboratory, on the other hand, drops a certain liquid into debris recovered from the bombsite. "When the sample turns a certain color, then it will indicate the kind of chemicals present. But it could be that the samples are contaminated," the source said.

The source said that at least six Americans from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), the US Navy Seals and an Explosive Ordnance Division (EOD) unit have been helping out in the probe. Later in the afternoon, experts from Australia also arrived.

The American experts, the source said, tested six samples from different locations at least three times. "There were samples taken from 500 meters from the blast site and also at the seat or source of the blasts, in this case the hole that was caused."

He also confirmed that the blast originated from a bunker oil container the size of a 20-foot container van located near a septic tank. The area also contained aircon exhaust vents, a generator set, empty diesel tanks, and fuel that might have emitted dangerous fumes.

"The confluence of the mixture of gases trapped inside a confined space will look for an outlet and needs release," the expert said.

The source also noted that the blast did not cause fire, as compared to explosions caused by C4 or TNT which would cause black or gray smoke. "The kind of damage we saw is consistent with enormous pressure being released. Gases like methane don't show up in the kind of tests already done," said the source.

The source said investigators should be finished with their probe of the basement before midnight Sunday.

I heard the interview by ANC's Lia Andanar Yu of Ayala Land spokesperson Alfie Reyes, and it was apparent that he was already laying the groundwork for a legal defense against what could be a large liability suit. He pointed out that the basement was under the control of the tenant, Makati Supermarket. I wonder what else were in the basement aside from a 4000-liter diesel tank, a waste oil/water separator (I suppose a centrifuge; having worked in a diesel power plant ages ago, I know how such things work), grease, and a septic tank. A very explosive combination.

Some pundits had seized upon a PNP chemist's hesitation about mentioning C4 as early 'evidence' of a coverup. But one test of one sample indicating trace amounts of RDX is far from conclusive. More than eight semesters of chemistry (basic, organic, inorganic, quantitative, qualitative, biochem, phychem) taught me that most tests have varying rates of false positives, when a test is wrong for various reasons, whether the intrinsic limitation of a test or the carelessness of a lab technician.

(Aside: It took me a long while to get over the fact that I tested positive for shabu during the last renewal of my driver's license. The colorimetric drug test (urinalysis) also tested for cannabis, and I was tempted to taunt the technician that the test was wrong on both counts. I did not because the technician had made up her mind based on my appearance ---profiling? (I hope you get this joke). Eventually, I refused to take the more expensive confirmatory blood test and asserted my rights and returned to the clinic, and without paying any additional fee, got a negative result. The other test mentioned in the GMA report, is diffusion spectroscopy, a much more expensive one but with lesser tolerance for error.
When I was with the Ministry of Energy in the early 80's, I was involved in the field and lab testing of the effectiveness of a colorimetric method (a marker dye added to the potential contaminants) for testing 'adulteration' of regular and premium gasoline with diesel and kerosene. If the sample tested positive, a second test, called RON test (research octane number which measures the anti-knock characteristic of a fuel) using, guess what, a bomb calorimeter, was used as a confirmatory test. Before the marker dye, the primitive method was a field test using a hydrometer to test the density (or specific gravity) of a sample compared to 'pure' gasoline).

What we really need to see are the hypothesis-testing protocols of the investigators, laying out a series of logical if-then-else statements. While it might be too much to expect that they would be familiar with Karl Popper's obsession with the falsifiability of hypotheses as a fundamental criterion in scientific statements, I am willing to be surprised, as I was with Dean Jorge Bocobo's post on gaseous deflagrations.

If the investigators eventually come to the conclusion that it was an accident, we might all be relieved to know that the Islamists and military rebels are not that stupid and that the Gloria is not that ruthless. Perverse? Perhaps...

The CSI on Glorietta 2; RDX, C4, etc; and the economics of speculation and terror risk mitigation

As of midnight last night, government blast forensics experts still could not conclude whether the explosion in Glorietta 2 which killed 10 and injured more than 100 others Friday was that of a bomb. Although traces of RDX (Research Department X), which constitutes 90% of the plastic explosive C4 were detected from the debris, it was pointed out that this has pharmacological uses (among them as a rat poison). Thus the speculation continues unabated as to the perpetrators, their motives, and the final effects.

The admonition against speculation came a bit late, because by then many had formed their own conclusions. Also, the right to speculate is an inalienable human right, the exercise of which is a matter of survival in a situation where the supply curve for truth and information, especially from official sources, hardlly ever satisfies public demand. In any case, speculation has not yet been declared an exclusive privilege of the executive. “Don’t speculate too soon,” the Venable national security adviser was advising. (So when is speculation timely?) Not so soon after, the security adviser was peddling his speculative take that ‘terrorists’ were on a fund-raising enterprise and that the blast was a simple demonstration of potential for the benefit of benefactors.

Having read and heard the reports, speculative and otherwise, in the past 36 hours, I was beginning to fear I would have nothing left to speculate on, as the ‘facts’ came in trickles. On second thought, I concluded, that would never happen, because I bet, even after the official reports are issued, classified, disseminated, and regurgitated, many of us would still be speculating on which facts were suppressed, how and which observations were ‘doctored’, and how the final and official versions of the truth were spun. In fact, even before the Glorietta incident, many of us were in the midst of speculating on the NBN and the Malacanang and House bribes.

(A broad aside: I suspect the speculation industry is one of the large emerging contributors to the national economic output. But being mostly in the informal sector, the value therefrom might not be reflected in official estimates. Maybe if these did, we might be growing at more than 10% annually. Or, conversely and more plausibly, our unrecognized and underpaid statisticians might have included such output but forgot to warn us, which explains our disbelief).

The output of the speculation industry is siginificant because of the abovementioned market conditions. On the supply (sellers) side, there’s a large pool of unemployed and underpaid/employed and self-proclaimed analysts/pundits who think they are bright, or at least brighter than those offering official truths. Thus, the supply curve is almost flat and also hardly distinguishable from the X-axis. This explains why, notwithstanding the large demand, the marginal price is close to zero in equilibrium. If you can think graphically, you’ll agree that the price-quantity product would still be a significant part of GDP.

(Another broad aside: some of the buyers are also self-generators, meaning they supply their own demand. If they are full of themselves they offer their excess supply to the informal and formal markets; otherwise they find time to appreciate the speculation and insights of others in the market. Most buyers, I suspect, are of the passive/voyeuristic kind (the gotum), experiencing gratification without ever thinking how to use the information to introduce changes in their lives and society at large. In the market I describe, the sellers are called speculators, the incident speculated on is called speculatum, and the elements or parts of the speculatum are speculatees, whose motives, means, opportunities and ideologies are the subject of the speculation or speculating; and the master of the speculatees is called the sputum).

The market conditions I describe are real and I am led to conclude that this type of speculation never creates a bubble that will burst or explode in our faces. In sharp contrast to speculation in commodity markets, where speculators have been known to lose their shirts and underwear, the players in our kind of speculation have nothing to lose: one is always better off speculating than having to swallow the shit our government excretes.

The economics of terror risk mitigation

What if the incident was indeed Islamic or rightwing or leftwing terrorism? I assert that the latter two are more reasonable and more predictable without rigorous discussion and proof. Let me tackle the first. These guys and girls are not so bright and we can probably treat the events they perpetrate as random acts impervious to benefit-cost analysis on their part, especially when some of them don’t value their own lives. Suicide bombers, unfortunately, are part of the equation and the amorphous inequalities we have to confront. So what then? I contend that the reasonable thing to do is to take the risk as part of life and mitigate the risk rationally. There is a large bodega of economics literature which shows that people don’t really behave reasonably, much less rationally. This is why, in the face of a large set of risks, our prioritization in terms of costs and benefits, leaves much to be desired. We always confront a large set of dangers to our well-being and we need to think of priorities soberly. Yes, terrorism is a real threat. But there are other graver threats the mitigation of which costs less. Think about poverty and environmental problems. We should allocate resources and attention guided by the facts, I hope.

Let me also point out that the risks from terrorism are inequitably distributed. On the side of victims, these are mostly urban and upper class, while the costs of mitigation, I suspect, are borne by taxpayers at large. You think that’s fair? To the extent that mall operators enhance security, well and good, as that cost will inevitably be passed on to shoppers.

The CSI on G2, RDX, C4 etcetera

I can only hope that the forensics experts are professionals, especially after observing that NCR police office director Geary Barias has maintained an open mind after premature disclosures. He has refused to jump to conclusions, though he is privately entitled to his own speculations. I have yet to see or hear of any systematic data gathering insofar as eyewitness accounts (a good collection is provided in Manolo Quezon’s blog) is concerned. Also, in a competent CSI, investigators are supposed to re-enact the incident. Including a time/space account of where the fatalities and other casualties were.

Were the dead properly autopsied? Have all the injured been interviewed? Have all the footages been examined?

Barias has said that he still could not rule out an accidental gaseous explosion as the blast has been determined as coming from the basement. What did the basement house? He said there was sewage ‘grease’. He could have meant waste oil and solid waste sludge. Have his investigators interviewed people in charge of the solid waste management system in the mall? I have not closed my mind to a methane-based explosion, more consistent with the footage I’ve seen. Likely I will be proven wrong. But I reserve and assert my right to speculate.

GMA and JDV: Liars, paradoxes, dilemmas

How will the standoff between JDV and GMA finally be resolved? In the past decade, at least three groups of economists have been awarded the Nobel prize for economics for expanding theory and application of game theory, which applies when each actor’s move/s depends on her/his expectation of the opponent’s move.

The classic example, unfortunately, is the prisoners’ dilemma, which was originally meant to illustrate how two actors, mistrusting each other in a one-shot game, would, acting in their own narrow-minded interests, forego the best outcome. This is because the two prisoners find it in their own best interest to betray rather than cooperate with each other. The sub-optimal equilibrium applies when there is no allowance for learning or repeated interactions between the players.

In the case of JDV and GMA however, it is in our best interest that once they’ve decided on their strategies, the outcome should be final and they both finally rest on their laurels and in their graves. This means that we need to design a game where there are no further interactions. How? Life without parole for both of them, and they self-destruct.

The Liar’s Paradox

A related problem in logic and philosophy is the Liar’s paradox. GMA says in a televised interview that she has asked for an investigation of the bribery scandal. Clearly, she is saying “I’m a liar.” Anyone who takes that statement at face value would face an unsolvable problem. How can she be telling the truth as she says she is lying. The argument is circular and the only solution is by appreciating a context outside the original statement. This is why Rene Saguisag’s demand for an independent inquiry acquires relevance.

NBN: The devil hides the detail

The devil, it is said, is in the detail. Unfortunately for us, our senators and journalists have not shown much resolve in examining details, maybe out of plain incompetence or laziness. In this case, too, it is the devil herself hiding the detail.

When I first learned that the NEDA had refused the Senate’s request for the NBN documents, I couldn’t believe it. After the initial denial, I wanted to puke. I was so mad that for the first time this year, I honked my horn on the way to Greenbelt to watch a film in the Spanish movie festival. And I was doing 80 instead of my usual wimpy 60 kph.

You may not know it but the documents requested, at least some of them anyway, had already been made available to the media and posted in at least one website. I’m referring to (1) the minutes of the joint NEDA-ICC cabinet committee and the ICC technical board held March 26, 2007, and (2) the evaluation report of the NEDA infrastructure committee dated March 29. .

In a previous post, I pointed out that even these two documents in themselves constitute the smoking gun in the allegations of scandal in which the president was a willing conspirator, at worst, and as an accessory at best. Let me now explain in greater detail.

During that joint meeting, the ICC secretariat presented to the members a status report on the the NBN project . In the form and substance it had been presented to the last meeting, the minutes said, the NBN, covering the needs of national government agencies and city and municipal branches, and 23,549 elementary and high schools in the country’s first and second class municipalities, the whole project would have an economic internal rate of return (EIRR) of only13.01% Because the hurdle rate of NEDA is 15%, the NPV was a negative (-) P1.58B ), clearly a no go. Also, the Chinese government had indicated that it would not fund the connectivity to the schools, and the alternative to be explored was to replace the connectivity to 23,549 barangays (no mention in which cities and municipalities) and the NPV would be P652.13M and the EIRR would be a marginally improved 15.8%.

Recall that during the Senate blue ribbon hearings, Neri had asserted that the project, regardless of modality and financing sources, had an NPV more of than P10B and an EIRR of close to 30%.

IN any case, the presentation of the secretariat’s ended with the following recommendation:

In line with the government’s thrust of promoting digital infrastructure development for provision of ICT services across the country to address the digital divide, the Secretariat favorably recommends the project subject to the resolution of the above issues, especially on the replacement of school beneficiaries with barangay offices.

Three days later (!), the infrastructure committee of the NEDA-ICC issued its report. With the figures cited by Neri in the Senate hearings. But first, let me discuss what transpired after the presentation of the secretariat.

“Neri noted that the terms and conditions for the proposed loan for the project are not as concessionary as those for other Chinese-assisted projects such as the Northrail and the CEP projects. With an annual interest rate of 4% and repayment period of 10 years, inclsuive of 3 years grace period, Secretary Neri added that the terms are actually almost commercial.”

On project costs

Secretary Neri noted that among the alternatives being presented by the Secretariat were one in which the schools not covered by the CEP were considered, and one which excluded said schools. He inquired on whether school site engineering cost amounting to almost P1.4 M will be dropped in the event that the schools will be dropped from the project. He also sought clarification if the expense would be the same if the barangay offices, instead of the schools, are considered the project beneficiaries. The Secretariat confirmed that the site engineering cost will be dropped if the schools are excluded and that the cost would be the same if the barangay offices, instead of the schools, are considered as project beneficiaries. (Note that the locations of the schools and the barangays are not in the same geographical area.

On economic benefits

Secretary Neri inquired on how savings will be generated as a result of the retirement of old equipment. The Secretariat clarified that savings will be generated as the proponent will no longer have to buy expensive and non-readily available spare parts for the old analog system, as well as eliminate the cost for regular site inspection/network trouble-shooting and the required manpower due to the computerized /automatic network management feature, thereby resulting in savings in terms of operations and maintenance costs. The Secretariat added that the old eqipment will not be sold and in fact some of them will still be used .

Secetary Nery sought clarification on how VoIP savings translate into benefits for the government. The Secretariat replied that with the project, the government will reduce its fixed line subscription by as much as 50% and its fax and mobile phone costs by about 80%.

With regard to Secretary Nery’s inquiry on how the benefits resulting from having a centralized IDC are quantified, the Secretariat explained that the IDC can host all government applications software and databases. Thus, eliminating individual data centers and corresponding O&M costs.

In the March 26 meeting, there were a number of issues left hanging as indicated by the following:

1. The terms of the projected loan from the Chinese government as pointed out byh Neri;
2. Skepticism over how the savings were calculated. In the project evaluation report by the Infrastructure staff, the savings were in fact referred to as assumptions and not as best estimates or calculations. How can these be included in an economic valuation?
3. Finance Secretary Gary Teves asserted that the project as represented had to be clarified with the president because, in his own understanding, the president had a different concept.
4. DOF Undersecretary Paul had doubts about the projects consistency with existing policy.

Yet, in the Infrastructure staff report of March 29, the EIRR had shot up to 30% from the 15.8% initially presented in the March 26 meeting. This is clearly a case of underestimating costs and bloating the benefits to maximize the attractiveness of the project. Let me just focus on the projected benefits in the NEDA infrastructure staff’s spreadsheet calculations:

1. The savings from foregone operation and maintenance costs of the old DOTC equipment were included throughout the project life, at more than P500M per year for 15 years. As I asserted in a previous post, only the mentally retarded would count unnecessary MOE as savings when the system would have been useless in the near future anyway. If you have a car which will have to be discarded in a year or two, you just decide to stop using it period, and this decision is not related to your buying a new car later.
2. The savings from VOIP/landline/mobile subscriptions and internet connections are dubious, to be kind. As I’ve said, the NEDA infrastructure staff, taking DOTC figures at face value, referred to these as assumptions and not as rigorous estimates.
3. As for the internet connection savings, I noticed that these were assumed to decrease by 5% annually to reflect both greater competition and technological progress. Five percent? Just this year alone, I saved more than 50% by switching from Pacific to Sky DSL. In his Senate testimony, Neri lamented the fact that commercial broadband costs in the country were as much as a multiple of a hundred to costs abroad. If he had properly studied the calculations of his own staff, he himself would have concluded that the broadband service savings are ghost benefits, especially if Neri believed that the system can be improved with better regulation and freer entry.
4. In the meeting of March 26, Neri was uncomfortable with the 4% interest indicated by the Chinese government. Yet, in the NEDA infra staff evaluation, the loan interest was assumed to be at a maximum of 3%, a 25% reduction.

In short, the real and final question is, what happened between March 26 and March 29, when so many basic and controversial questions were resolved by the infra staff ?(hint: the Senate should ask Ruben Reinoso to testify; there might even be no further need to hear from Neri).

During the Senate hearings, Neri was asked if there was anything irregular in the time lapse between the economic evaluation report and the final NEDA board approval on April 20. He replied that this was not unusual. Except that April 20 was the eve of the signing of the contract in China, witnessed by the president herself.

The Philipine Onion's exclusive with Corazon Aquino

Let me reprint in full The Philippine Onion's exclusive interview with Corazon C. Aquino"

TPO: Mam , we haven't heard from you since the outrage over "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" hit the pages.

CCA: At first I thought they were referring to my prodigal daughter Kris. But when I read the apology, I was sufficiently appeased. It was neither of us.

TPO: But didn't you file a libel case against the columnist who claimed you hid under a bed during one of the more serious coups during your administration?

CCA: What bed? Which bed? No, that was different. Louie questioned my capability to be commander-in-chief. That really tended to undermine faith in my government, right.

TPO: Uhmmm.

CCA: Hey were you ever in the Malacanang press corps. You look familiar... A hardy bunch, they never seemed to be downed by the chicken liver pate I gave them at Christmas. By the salmonella I mean...

TPO: I wasn't born yet Mrs. President.

CCA: Anyway, do you know that all you political pundits overestimate your influence? Do you know that the most popular columns are not Manolo Quezon's nor Conrad de Quiroses's. Not even that guy who calls himself DJB Rizalist. The most popular column is Dolly Carvajal's and she has advised me that Kris's influence far outshines mine.

TPO: Maybe mam, but...

CCA: No ifs and buts. I may have the persona of an outstanding Catholic, but there are things you don't know about me. If only you knew what I whispered into an ear of Chairman Abalos...

NBN: The NEDA's benefits and costs and where they hid the 'smoking gun'

In the wee small hours of morning one Sunday (September 30) I chanced upon DOTC secretary Leandro Mendoza on DZMM’s teleradyo, close to faking an O (whether an Oh or an Ouch depends on your particular perversity) over his defense of the NBN deal, as if it was his first chance to do so. I don’t know how many other insomniacs caught his convoluted arguments, but the few who did were probably moved to swearing off on some nocturnal pleasures.

The friendly anchor asked him why he didn’t explain the benefits during the Senate hearings. He replied that Asec. Lorenzo Formoso was more technically competent to explain those. I’ve read Formoso’s tables and these didn’t explain how he extrapolated the baseline specs and costs of ZTE to come out with comparable figures for AHI and Arescom, nor identify the strange alchemy he resorted to make lemons into apples.

I have since then been able to look at the NEDA evaluation report (March 29, 2009) and the ICC-NEDA cabinet committtee minutes (March 26,2007). In the meeting Romulo Neri and even the finance department representatives raised relevant points which should have taken the ICC secretariat and the NEDA’s infrastructure staff months to address. But note that the final ICC approval was issued April 20. If these do not a constitute a ‘smoking gun’ to you, I can only surmise that you’ve never fired one.

In the ICC cabinet committee meeting, Neri asked the secretariat to clarify how savings could be reckoned from the abandonment of old and unserviceable equipment maintained by the DOTC. A very valid point which I examined in the infrastructure staff’s report.

If you had an old car on the brink of being unserviceable, junking it, even before you decide to buy a new one, is the rational thing to do. Yet, in the report of the infrastructure staff, ‘savings’ from deciding to stop maintaining that car were counted as part of the benefits of the NBN. As Mar Roxas would probably say, Stunning! Indeed.

In the meeting, Neri was also skeptical about the savings from the national and local government’s telecommunication expenses, and Senator Roxas was correct to raise doubts about these during the hearings. In fact, it is difficult to explain how his staff could have explained these to Neri in such a short time. It is obvious that they were just forced to accept the unverified figures from the DOTC.

I of course know that the sudden and long gap in the hearings have led to so many conspiracy theories, victimizing the bible-quoting chair of the blue-ribbon committee and the real estate agent who happens to be president of the smaller chamber. Also, Neri’s invocation of executive privilege has led to Jarius Bondoc’s invocation of his right to invoke moral choice as a citizen.

But Bondoc’s revelations may not really have that much force. As Yawyaw, my three-year-old neighbor would say, that’s all Hershey, and while delicious, not admissible in court. What should be admissible in all courts, legal and popular, are the documents and what these imply.

Last Friday, the UP School of Economics organized a forum featuring past NEDA directors general. I wasn't there so I was not able to say my piece. I would have pointed out that even during the time of FVR, the NEDA's evaluations were trumped by Malacanang's judgements, especially in regard to some power projects.

Chinese Embassy leaks Philippine Senator's letter of apology

More from the Philippine Onion:

Before the end of office hours Friday, the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines leaked excerpts from the letter of the senator who chairs the foreign relations committee, and its terse reply.

What we gleaned from the English translation of the embassy's response, provided by the Taiwanese diplomatic office (otherwise known as the Manila Economic and Cultural Office or MECO), was that PROC officials gave some welcome comfort to the Philippine senator. (Read this with some grain of salt; officially, China claims Taiwan is part of its sovereign territory).

When she went ballistic like a wayward missile in a hearing on the NBN, the senator berated China as the cradle of corruption in the East. In her letter, she pleaded temporary insanity and revealed that she was also afflicted with a rare disease which leads to involuntary movements of her mouth and tongue. "Only during full moons do I understand what I'm saying," the senator confessed.

"Don't worry," the letter from the Chinese embassy said, "we have our own share of crazy people."

Sources in the senator's office said the letter from the Chinese ambassador came with kyamoy, dikyam, 200 pieces of white rabbit. siopao, and pansit. Amazing, said she, but where's the Maling?

The apology was accepted without protest, as was the reply.

Jon Stewart Apologizes to Filipinos

Breaking news from The Philippine Onion:

Producers of the The Daily Show with Jon Stewart have apologized to Filipinos who took offense at the segment starring Samantha Bee titled "Are we ready for a woman president?" In that segment, the word 'slut!' was scrawled on a tv picture of former President Corazon Aquino.

The alleged slur came on the heels of the outrage sparked by the season opener of Desperate Housewives, which had the character played by Teri Hatcher wanting to verify whether her doctor came from a med school in the Philippines. ABC, show producer, has already clarified that it did not mean to disparage Filipino health professionals.

In the public apology, Jon Stewart explained that they had the wrong Philippine woman president. But in a further insult, Samantha (won't let it) Bee asked Philippine journalists to check the word 'satire,' used to refer to the program.

Anonymous sources told the Philippine Onion that in a forthcoming episode, Bee is shown further taunting Filipinos (she called them Flips). "Supercallifragilisticexpialidocious! I totally misunderestimated your low self-esteem. You get piqued by such petty issues. "Get a life!" she said. The segment is titled "Are you ready to impeach your woman president?"

If you lose your sense of hunor, Bee said, I will stop eating Filipinos. (A brand of delectable Spanish cookies).

NBN: Recurring themes in our nation's life

I am surely not the only observer of the country's life who noticed that in the testimony of Romulo Neri before the Senate last week, he railed and ranted against the dominant role of the oligarchy in directing the life of the Filipino nation.
On the eve of his appearance before the Senate, I saw him on TV elaborating on a popular theme. Even if there was going to be another Edsa, nothing much would change. Another faction of the oligarchy would just defeat another and the poor among us would be where we were.
Neri's is a well-founded skepticism and I wish we had a dialogue with people like him more often. It might be unfortunate that his arguments sound eerily like those of Ferdinand Marcos in 1972. When Neri gave his testimony before the Senate, it was five days after the 35th commemoration of the declaration of martial rule in 1972. And in some conversations with friends, he had expressed his reservations about telling the truth, because his truth could be used by one faction of the oligarchy against another.
This is where the truth gets muddled. If you believe there is a truth out there which is independent of the oligarchy which funds research projects, you are welcome to elaborate your views. What do you think of the funding you get? And which part of the oligarchs in other countries might they come from?

Whistleblowing in the wind

I have nothing more to say, said Romulo Neri over the weekend. The former NEDA director general and economic planning secretary is an outspoken fellow and it is his outspokenness which led him to disclose his discomfort on the NBN deal to his friends and acquaintances. His friends believed he would disclose all he knew given the right forum and if pressed hard enough.

Their belief was unfounded. For very often, in our day-to-day dealings with government officials, we hear complaints and stories of scandals and wrongdoing, and when we finally ask them whether they are ready to attest to such claims officially, they say no. I, for one, in the course of work in the energy and environment sectors, have heard many tall tales about the highest officials of the land. Unfortunately, my friends and acquaintances in government are willing whistleblowers only when they are whistleblowing in the wind.When the time comes for them to prove they have a backbone, they invariably ask, rhetorically, “You are willing to take care of my family?” Of course, what can I possibly say? And there are also more difficult questions, such as, “when I’m no longer around, who will give you the lowdown on what’s happening?” This last is a question I heard very recently in regard to procurement of fuel supplies. If you or I were in their place, what would we really do"? Could we be as sanctimonious?

Let me first get this out of the way. I am totally disgusted with some commentators who have taunted Romulo Neri about his personal life and preferences because of their disappointment over his behavior. While I can understand their frustration, that is no excuse for lack of decency in the struggle to get at the truth, or the closest approximation to it.

I understand the disappointment of Solita Monsod over Neri’s resort to ‘executive privilege’ over questions beyond his conversation with Comelec chair Benjamin Abalos. But she is most probably wrong in her assertion that he did his boss a disservice, especially if feeding us only the convenient truths was on her orders. After all, we all know that leaders can be myopic, and what we really don’t know is how myopic they can be.

Professors Emmanuel de Dios and Raul Fabella were more circumspect in their analysis, prefacing their paper with the perception of the president’s wish to leave a legacy and contrasting this with the reality of the obvious flaws of the NBN project. Their ciriticisms were also very constructive and could lead to genuine reforms through legislation.

Perhaps it was because of Fabella’s priestly airs and the appearance of de Dios as his willing acolyte that on Thursday last week, there was a palpable sense of a serious discussion going on between the Senate and the country’s respected academics. The senators seemed afraid to be exposed as ignorant boors before the guests. In the previous hearing, they had acted as boorish ignoramuses before hapless guests from the executive, even if that was because the executive did send its representatives to be slaughtered to save the boar, and maybe the bitch.

NBN: Negotiated Truths?

They must find it difficult...

Those who have taken authority as the truth,

Rather than truth as the authority.

I find the quote above, attributed to Egyptologist G. Massey in Zeitgeist, appropriate as we ponder the difficulty confronting those seeking the truth on the National Broadband Network (NBN) scandal. I am often in heated debates with ‘post-modernist’ friends whose definition of truth is too relativistic for comfort. But even they, I hope, would agree that the truth we refer to here are more akin to facts and not some philosophically debated ‘scientific truths.’

In today’s Senate hearing, the resource persons will offer what to me is the most reasoned and sober appraisal on the need for the project itself. When the study of Emmanuel de Dios and Raul Fabella, dean and immediate past dean of the U.P. School of Economics respectively, first came out in the press, one of the immediate reactions from the spokesmen and other motley defenders of the project was, ‘how could they make any valid conclusions when they haven’t even read the contract?” And whose fault was that ? The thieves taunted the scholars: “how can you say we’ve stolen anything when you’ve never seen what we’ve stolen?” (Right after the publication, it was reported that the contracts had evaporated, but could be reconstituted, and perhaps even homogenized, lending credence to suspicions the project was really meant to be a milking cow). Elementary, there is/was something missing in the place it should be: plain and simple reason.

Executive secretary Eduardo Ermita insulted the scholars further as ‘never impartial.” He thus spoke as the authority with an unearned patent on the truth. Yesterday he was at pains explaining ‘executive privilege’ on how the truth could justifiably be withheld from us. who he must look down on as pious subjects, and just take his word for it. I can’t do that sir. Never.

Is the truth subject to negotiation?

In this case I hope not. The House Speaker and his son, and their president have been implicated, as are Comelec’s Abalos, DOTC’s Leandro Mendoza, and the gentle man. But from each their ability for candor and to each according to the degree of mitigation that candor justifies, to borrow loosely from my favorite philosopher.

How might the Speaker and his son twist the truth so as to explicate away the purported actions of the gentle man and his spouse? Simply, but in an incredible way. They can and might lead some to believe the portrait of the gentle man as the model of decency and propriety as painted by the gentle man’s lawyer. After all, JdVIII can always assert that he never attributed any motive to the FG’s words, so he has some room for maneuver there. He can as us to back off and many may unfortunately heed his admonition.

To the extent that their expectations of Romulo Neri were high in yesterday’s hearing, so did the frustrations of those who saw the controversy as just another chance to gain power have a potential to fall. Don’t misundertand me, I share the same passion for radiclal changes, but not the easy way.

They expected Neri to implicate the president and the gentle man unequivocably. As far as I’m concerned , if we activists for a better society had done our homework, that would have been enough to trigger large-scale demonstrations. Instead, the politically voyeuristic public has been and continues to be non-committal. Whose fault is that?

To be more blunt, I have observed that friends and acquaintances in the Left who are supposed to be guided by a more realistic theory of social change have been caught in a time warp of sorts, way back to the middle ages. They are prone to pin their hopes on heroes and have for the past decades, even portrayed social problems as a battle between good and evil. Where have they been these past few years?

If these friends find the time to dilligently read the paper by de Dios and Fabella, they would find that they could not pick the observations and conclusions just to support their own biases. The two scholars did provide the executive branch, leeway for a change of course and gave the president the benefit of the doubt. Granting that the facts will eventually support accusations of corruption? What then? That was the question posed by Neri on the eve of his Senate testimony.

I’ve met Neri only once, and that was last year, in a meeting of stakeholders in the power sector and in the presence of some foreign funders. (As I left the premises of a business organization based in Makati, the ambassador of a superpower came in). At the time I ‘challenged’ the view of Neri in regard to effecting immediate reforms in the power sector. While I agreed with his views on market power and more effective regulation, his ideas seemed to me to be hatched on another planet. Some other friends agree with me about his good intentions but question his technical competence, something he himself admits. Unfortunately for me, he saw me in that meeting as a minion instead of as an independent guest and resource person, and that is why I walked out and left with the impression of him as well-intentioned but not really competent.

We’re on Earth, aren’t we?

So what can and what should we reasonably expect from the Senate hearings?

From reading his columns and blogs and watching his TV program, I had the impression of Manolo Quezon as impartial and sober. But he was so incensed because of yesterday’s hearing, which, according to my scorecard, only one in four questions were relevant and helpful. Keep your cool Manolo, you’re doing us all a great service. But be cool.

At the very least, we expect the Senate to finally help resolve the question of executive privilege. If they can’t even resolve that question, they might as well just abandon the hearings for good.

September 23, 1972: incoherent memories

September 23, 1972

It was a Saturday and I took two jeepney rides from Lawaan, Talisay to the U.P. Cebu campus in Lahug. I was excited because I had been chosen as one of two editors for the high school paper Tambuli, old vernacular for horn shell. There really might be no English equivalent, as with many words outside of English. Picked as a co-editor was my classmate Rita Murillo. It was supposed to be our first editorial meeting to discuss the launch of the paper and the articles for the first issue. I cannot now recall who else were chosen to staff the paper except Ella Rose Cabiluna and Rosendo Estoye.

Fe Reyes, the paper’s adviser, met us near the oblation to say we should all just go home because ‘martial law’ had been declared. It was the first time ever I had heard that phrase. A year earlier I had heard of ‘writ of habeas corpus.’ But in September of 1972, I was just seven months into my first year as a teenager.

I did not go straight home but instead went to my aunt and uncle’s bookshop (Paul's bookstore was the first after WWII in Cebu) at the time one of the top three book stores in Cebu. My aunt Fidela did not really know what had happened or what was happening. So she allowed me to hang out and browse while waiting for word from home. I don’t even remember where I had lunch that day but I do remember buying ‘My Name is Asher Lev’ by Chaim Potok for my older sister Josephine, who turned 17 two days earlier and who had planned on inviting her college sophomore classmates to the house for a celebration that Saturday. There was a another bookshop near the jeepney terminal, and I spent some more time there because it was in a block we called ‘Lane’ and I recall having been home that night in time to see the official broadcast with the president who said he had declared a state of emergency to save the country from all sorts of trouble makers.

The remainder of the year and the following were eventful to say the least. The crisis in the Middle East, including the Munich hostage crisis and the Yom Kippur War. As a junior in high school I chose Yom Kippur as the subject of my English class baby thesis and it had to go through an oral defense when I was fourteen.

But before that I had had a lot to read, and many of the books I didn’t really understand (Orwell’s Animal Farm and 1984, Koestler’s Darkness at Noon, ... I tried but at the time there really wasn’t much to do aside from brood and since I wasn’t ‘normal’ in terms of being a boy chasing girls, I was in the library often. And when I wasn’t in the library I was in the faculty room. I don’t know why my teachers allowed me in there to have coffee with and even smoke with them, even after the edicts on short hair, and the subsequent youth civic action program (YCAP) and citizens army training (CAT) had been imposed.

After graduation from high school, my values had pretty well been shaped. I was an atheist even before I called myself Marxist. I was first associated with the group of the Maoist party in Cebu before I joined the old communist party (PKP) in 1977 or 1978. In 1990 the PKP expelled me after I ahd spoken out at a forum challenging the scientific nature of historical and dialectical materialism.

Now after 35 years, I feel just slightly older than I was in 1972. Old comrades have moved on with their families and careers. They may have perfected the art of forgetting and surviving. I wake up and still ask myself the same questions, perhaps more calmly now, but still the adolescent I was on September 23 35 years ago.

JdVIII on taking the high road

If there is anything which has so far diminished the credibility of the father's son, it must be his claim that 'experimenting with marijuana and beer' was a mistake, especially while doing that in Boston, where some geniuses are self-reliant and reportedly grow the best weed in the world in their own dorms.

I have heard a lot of anecdotes about the humility and simplicity of the first and only daughter of her mother, but her stupid insinuation that JdVIII's recklessness might be due to Jane takes and beats the brownie. Have the accusations come too close to home that she has to strike below the belt? Is her unaffected demeanor denial of the lowest kind? My unsolicited proposal is: try it, and she may yet giggle and finally see what scum she came from.

As for JdVIII, all I can say is that he may not have inhaled deep enough. Experiment some more man!

NBN: Back-off-the-envelop estimates?

If this DOTC presentation at the Senate hearing on the NBN-ZTE-BA-FG deal was meant to explain to and convince taxpayers that it is beneficial and aboveboard, it failed miserably. What we have here is a table which purports to compare simply specifications and costs of three proposals/proponents. Because the specifications are different, what DOTC assistant secretary Formoso did was to 'extrapolate' unit costs to estimate the equivalent total costs for both Amsterdam Holdings and Arescom using the specs offered by ZTE as the baseline. (How in hell did he do this in multiple dimensions?) Apparently, all three proposals were unsolicited. The following questions immediately arise:

1. If the project had been a priority since 2000 after the passage of the e-commerce law, why didn't government have any list of minimum requirements? Such a bill of specifications would allow us to appreciate the general and specific needs for a national broadband network, and led to a more transparent and publicized invitation for courtship?
   
2. If we grant that at some point the ZTE-PROC executive agreement/tied loan possibility became too beautiful to resist, why didn't the DOTC and NEDA-ICC give the other proponents a chance to modify their own proposals or offered costs?
3. Why did Malacanang (PGMA) and when did it "back off" from the initial desiderata (BOT without take-or-pay, no guarantees...) officially articulated by JdVIII's president?

I have an open mind about whether a fundamental service should be provided by government or the private sector, although in the past I had an ideological bias against the latter. It is a matter of incentives, after all. But what strikes me about the Formoso presentation is the lack of rigor and detail in regard to project benefits. His oral testimony referred to cost savings (and I will not get into that for lack of reliable data) but not to any valuation of benefits.

1. Why is it so important for government to have its own network? And what is the difference in value between using private and self provision? Can they quantify or monetize the value of enhanced (but still imperfect) security?
2. More importantly, do the DOTC and the NEDA have an estimate of the value of improved communication among and between government agencies at different levels?

Unfortunately, what the hearings yesterday unintentionally demonstrated was government (executive) instrumentalities was that even with low-tech methods, they don't communicate. They have no common appreciation of the relevant laws and not even prescribed executive procedures.

Information, Democracy, Communication

DOTC Secretary Leandro Mendoza adverted to his background in 'intelligence' and proceeded to contradict himself with his subsequent responses. Could he not be aware that under his watch that his very own agency is among the least communicative ( to the people) and the most corrupt?

If we have to prioritize the information and communication problems that should be addressed, there are many, unfortunately, and these don't really require much expense or commissions. It is a matter of culture. In many cases, such as in the communications and energy bureaucracy, there are debilitating turf wars. Why? Your guess is very good.

Okay, let's grant that the private providers have limitations. But these have not yet even been breached! I would have asked Formoso for evidence that a public servant from a 6th class municipality in Mindanao wrote to someone in the central government (maybe the president) to complain of inaction. I bet the bottleneck is not in the medium but in the message and the way it is formulated.

Mam, I am a lowly farmer wanting to use a plot for biofuels and I seek advise on how I may and can avail of govenrment help, if any.

Culture and communication

Just visit the websites maintained by government ( three levels) and you are very likely to agree that the problem is not hardware but software (including the processes in the brains of public servants). Government officials who have e-mail addresses don't even read much less answer electronic mail! Yes of course they have minions to do that. But these minions are not empowered and are just like the customer service staff of private providers and worse. They get paid anyway, regardless of how they deal with the public.


So why not e-mail?

Using currently available technology but under a much-improved culture of transparency and responsiveness, a lot can be accomplished to improve government services. And there would be an electronic trail, especially with commercial media. The problem with the NBN, even if it may have a few merits, is that it would only reinforce biases of a government so secretive but still so incompetent, it doesn't know how to talk to minions and other branches. But this can serve loyalists or minions, and a dictatorship and what it means is what we are all supposed to remember on Sunday.

If you ask me, the more pressing need is for government to communicate to you and me. The only reason they need a dedicated and secure network is because they want to screw us, secretly. Secretary Mendoza appeared before the Senate yesterday, but only to defend the FG. And, even if I had a colony of ants to bite his scrotum, I'm afraid they would rather go to Mars than wait for him to tell the truth.

Sex, lies, and Abalos or Just another day for the Chairman

And death threats and wiretaps. What else could be added to this brew?

Today has been just another day for Comelec Chairman Benjamin Abalos, who reportedly reported for work to preside over election dispute hearings, presumably after his routine at the golf course. Undaunted by what we consider the explosive testimony of Jose de Venecia III at the Senate, the chairman, after emerging from the hearings, simply reiterated his blanket denials and would not speculate on what could be motivating JdVIII and the columnist Jarius Bondoc. Unlike DOTC Secretary Leandro Mendoza, who called the 'rantings' fairy tales of a 'losing bidder' (what bidding?). The sons of the FG, meanwhile, called the testimony 'black propaganda,' but did not explain why the son of the House speaker would risk prosecution and his and his father's future.

If you are a well-meaning and upright citizen hoping to shame the chairman into resignation, or worse, into suicide, yours is a losing battle. The reason Abalos comports himself the way he does is his confidence he will go down only with the rest of the boys, and girls, and the school marm who are at the very core of our society's power structure. If we were a functioning democracy, JdVIII's revelations alone would have been enough to trigger a wave of resignations and immediate indictments. But it is not, and, depending on the appreciation of the silent majority, our society can either implode , or revert to business as usual (BAU) mode. If the former, we risk manipulation by forces just as insidious and unethical as those they want to replace, especially in the absence of a democratic mass movement strong enough to take the reins. But that is still a better option than BAU, whose rottenness and workings JdVIII may have unwittingly exposed.

First, look at Abalos's disingenuous protestations. On the alleged sexcapades in Shenzen: my sexual prowess is myth. On his alleged power-brokering or 'commissioning' : who am I to wield such influence? I can attest to the chairman's integrity, to the effect that he, in hell, would rather consult his lawyers rather than his conscience, and this guy could swindle the devil himself as long as he could get away with it.

Second, take the narration of JdVIII at face value and appreciate that the guy has exposed his own culpability under our graft and corruption laws. But more important to me is the value of his own account of the way deals are made in this country.

• Would the proposal of his company have been taken seriously if he were not the son of his father?
• Would he have had access to high officials, the DOTC and Finance secretaries? Why would the DOTC secretary arrange a reconciliation meeting between two entities unless the secretary considered them part of the boys' network?
• His testimony also implied that his President knew of Abalos's brokering efforts and of his own proposal.
  

Now look at why Abalos apparently failed to, excuse my language, cover his ass with a cover story underpinned by 'plausible deniability?' Simply because he considered the young man and the father part of the 'old boys.'

In recent weeks, acquaintances in the energy sector have reported that their colleagues have admitted regularly delivering millions to the mystery man from procurement deals. I can only hope that at some point they find their balls and free themselves from this vicious circle or cycle.

And what of Romulo Neri? I was in a meeting with him last year with stakeholders of a foreign-funded project. I was initially turned off because he admitted to me that some columnists were in his payroll but this was mitigated by his independent attitude toward power sector regulation. I just hope he will surface and stand for his convictions, if any remain. I know that he has always been a player. In the next few days, we will know the game he has chosen.

And what about my favorite morally challenged senator? During the impeachment hearings in 2000, she questioned the testimony of a UP law graduate, insinuating that Ms. Banal's behavior was questionable because it was unlike her own documented opportunism. Yesterday, she questioned JdVIII's integrity on the same grounds. You want her to commit hara kiri. Chew your fingers.

In haste, Sandiganbayan jiustices forgot death penalty had been abolished

Just over an hour ago, the verdict in the plunder and perjury trial of former President Joseph Estrada was read, and the most telling sign of haste was that the justices forgot the death penalty had been abolished. The clerk of court said:

...the penalty for (plunder) is a minimum of reclusion perpetua and a maximum of death. But there having been no mitigating nor aggravating circumstances, the minimum of the two is hereby imposed...

None of the anchors of the ANC, nor the legal experts in the studio notice the egregious error. Neither did the former president's lawyers advert to this in their immediate reactions to media.

Unimpeachable?

On the contrary, they are impeachable. In the case of George W. Bush, a strong case could have been made much earlier, and as more evidence comes to light, his term shortens and the Democrats are finding it ever harder to remember where they misplaced their balls. This new revelation Bush knew Saddam had no weapons of mass destruction only adds to the frustration.

In the case of Gloria Arroyo of the Philippines, many would support impeachment only if they were guaranteed a better result, in the short run. Pragmatism wins over principle, especially if one uses a high social discount rate (or holding the present more valuable than the future). The main argument for conservatism and economic policy continuity is the lack of credibility among the opposition, with its fair share of shady characters.

Now that the 'Hello Garci' wiretaps and election cheating investigations are being reincarnated, all the opposition can muster is a case for impeachment against the elections chief commissioner, on an entirely unrelated case. One led by an alleged human rights abuser with unexplained wealth, and the other, someone who had admitted to influence peddling for the sake of his wife's business.

Long live Jose Maria Sison!

I am always ambivalent every time I hear any news about this guy's continuing persecution, which only serves to fuel his revolutionary delusions. In fact, one of my favorite conspiracy theories is that Sison's closet allies in the Philippines is national security adviser Norberto Gonzales, who has done more than his fair share in making Sison and his comrades more important than they really are.
Well, if justice has to be done, let it take its course, though I support the hypothesis of Joel Rocamora that the cause of Sison and his comrades still shines only because of the slow speed of light. People might be seeing light from a dying star, but because of the delay, what appears bright is already actually dead. But this phenomenon is not unique to the dead Maoist cause.
One other favorite conspiracy theory is that Sison became a celebrated 'revolutionary' in the Philippines primarily because of the help of the Central Intelligence Agency and Benigno Aquino Jr.

All I'm sure of is Joma Sison must be celebrating this most recent episode of 'persecution.' The first and last time I ever talked to this guy, he was lying though his teeth about the history of the revolutionary movement in the Philippines.

Mikey Arroyo's thin line on energy

I have no idea where he came from, but he has a lucky mother. But when I saw him on ANC last night saying there was a thin line between the independence of the Energy Regulatory Commission and the wishes (populist and manipulative) of the executive, I was alarmed. Rep. Mikey Arroyo, chair and lone member of the House energy committee, at first seemed cautious, until the interviewers got the better of him. And that was when he not only betrayed his ignorance (forgivable) and then his political tendencies (unforgivable).
Most every observer of the Philippine energy sector would agree that one of the main problems of sector regulation is the lack of transparency aggravated by the discretionary powers of the regulator, complexed with the political influence of whoever wields executive power. Sometimes, this weakness is utilized by all sorts of contending political factions (including, unfortunately, those from the Left and who should know better).
The independence of the regulatory bodies in the sector has seen some ups and downs in the close to three decades I've been in it, as an active participant and observer. I must say we might be hitting anothe new low.
Less power to you, Mikey Arroyo.

p.s. My favorite senator and neighbor, who went epileptic with the appointment of Angelo Reyes as energy secretary, must be baying at the moon.

President Mar Roxas? It may not matter...

With still over two years before the next presidential elections, Philippine pundits are already obsessing about the potential candidates, although some commentators argue that the landscape will have changed radically by then, either with a dictatorship or a parliamentary system dominated by the same elite.
Last night I had a chance to view an interview with one of the most articulate and ‘wonkish’ of the 2010 contenders, by one of the (if not the) sharpest talk show hosts on Philippine tv.
Because there are no ideologically defined political parties in the Philippines, voters usually look for personalities that have the most of their desiderata in a leader. Let me qualify this a bit. The Left is usually assumed by the so-called intellectual elite to offer a distinct alternative, but the Philippine Left, almost two decades after the end of the Cold War, is still finding its bearings. Its political participation is limited and its parties and their programs suffer from the same superstition centering on the battle between Good and Evil as their bourgeois counterparts are.
Ricky Carandang and his colleague Manolo Quezon have of late rightly brought the issues of poverty and inequality into focus in their work and it was to be expected that Carandang would confront Roxas on these issues. Roxas would be categorized as a compassionate conservative in the US and a left-winger here. But because I am far to the left of the Democrats, I would still consider him just as an over-cautious liberal. Roxas’s program on equality is to allocate (actually reallocate) funds to education and health. He will not impose new taxes. I would, especially more punitive ‘sin’ taxes on cigarets and alcohol ( I am a former heavy smoker and still a tippler) and impose efficiency-enhancing environmental taxes ( fuel prices in the Philippines are too low, especially from the standpoint of environmentalists) and lessen income taxes on the middle class.
But it is possible that Roxas will be the best in the field in 2010. And that is only because the Left, advocating a shorter path to poverty eradication and greater equality, doesn’t really have a significant constituency. Why not? I don’t really know but I will attempt to answer this later.
How much of a difference can Mar Roxas make? Not much, as the evidence marshalled by Steven Levitt shows. But it can, if you read it, especially the links in the comments, more carefully.

Chances are GMA is fantasizing

What is the price elasticity of demand for fantasy? I don't know, and neither does GMA. But I suspect it would depend on the kind of fantasy one is buying. But the president fears that raising the prices of lotto tickets might drive people to switch to illegal numbers games, which, I think, shouldn't be illegal in the first place.

Lotteries are technically mostly losing propositions for players, not because of the low probabilities of winning fantastic wealth, but because of the administrative costs and profit margins of the operators and the government take. Otherwise, the game would be fair, meaning the ticket price would be equal to the probability of winning multiplied by the pot. In the case of 6/42, where the chance of hitting the jackpot is one in 5,245,786 and not a million and one as reported here, the jackpot should be 52,457,860 if the choices are uniformly distributed and all the numbers are taken, for the expected value to equal P10. (Here I assume away the consolation prices as insignificant). But the PCSO guarantees only P3 million for this variant, which implies that at a minimum, the PCSO assumes that there are at least 545,454 fantasizers at the start of each 'game').

I have observed that the queues do get longer as the pot increases, but at a declining rate, which means that eventually the lottery becomes fair and perhaps, even a winning proposition. So people are not that dumb after all, as mainstream economics suggests, starting with the letdown that lotteries are a regressive tax on the innumerate.

Many years ago, I welcomed the articles of one Dean Jorge Bocobo in the pages of the Inquirer because he 'sounded' numerate and scientific, as opposed to many opinion writers whose only claim was the strength of their convictions and prejudices, until one day he wrote a feature on the lottery, betraying his lack of understanding of probability theory and statistics. Unfortunately, when I see him on TV these days, I get the impression he has retrogressed even further to the level of the pundits he used to criticize.

If the president were sincere in her concern for impoverished players of lotto, she would be more productive if she reduces admin and operating costs of the lottery and revisiting the contract with the private operator. But more importantly, she can also reform the funds allocation system of the PCSO. This is a difficult task, I imagine because these funds are under presidential discretion. But she can convince me if she relinquishes control and makes PCSO earnings part of general funds under congressional control.
(Disclosure: in 2005 I helped an acquaintance settle hospital bills through political connections, by accessing PCSO funds. His wife underwent expensive brain surgery. Though I would not classify him as poor, there was just no way he could foot the bill. But how many people are able to access such funds, especially if they don't have political connections?)
(Aside: It's funny that one Cris Remonde from Argao, Cebu was one of those protesting the PCSO move. He might be related to Cerge Remonde of the presidential management staff, tasked by Arroyo to discuss the matter with the PCSO.
So what are the benefits and costs of fantasizing? While economics can help, perhaps psychology can do better.
If President Arroyo fantasizes about leaving a legacy for the Philippines, the chance of that might be one in a billion, and she also might need professional help. Wanna bet?

Come to your census

Actually, the enumerators will come to you. In the fifteen years or more I've lived in Teachers Village West, I've never met any of the census enumerators. This is a very important matter for both the public and private sectors.

In the two times I could have been included in the censuses, the interviewers just left forms in the hole in the wall. Next time I meet them, I will even ask them to come inside the apartment because I myself have a number of questions to ask them as part of my own private surveys.

For example, the last time I looked at the NSCB figures, there were at most 5000 single male-headed households in Quezon City. Am I an outlier? Or within the norm of households headed by single males.

The enumerators in the latest survey can count on me to serve them coffee, at the very least. At most I will engage them in discussions on statistics and econometrics. At worse, I will serve them breakfast.

More than twenty years ago, my sister's shirt, suggesting population stats would be broken down by age and sex sounded funny. Because I'm already sixty seven, the slogan is no longer amusing.

Help! Our prayers have been answered....

Last week, a top official of the Department of Science and Technology was on TV saying that if cloud-seeding efforts did not succeed in inducing rain to help fill our dams and inducing cooler weather, we could do nothing more but pray... A science official's resort to prayer doesn't really inspire faith.

Of course not everyone agrees on the power of prayer, as a US governor found out.

Now the rains have come. Although it is too early to say whether these will continue and alleviate the water and hydropower shortages, it is clear enough that heavy rains always come with the perennial consequences: flooding, traffic jams, lost school-days...

One of these days, our top officials, failing to sell the idea of emergency powers for the executive, might consult with a Norwegian princess on talking to angels. It is unfortunate that this member of the royalty proves that royalty can be such royal... By the way, Norway has a very sensible policy in managing it's oil resources, treating these as an endowment for all it's citizens instead of squandering these in the short term.

Clouds, now, from both sides

I’ve looked at clouds and the climate for over two decades and I must say the claims of our weather, energy, and science officials are a bit befuddling.

In the early 1990’s I was investigating the remote and immediate causes of the crippling power shortages, and observed that unseasonably bad weather inflicted a double whammy on power consumers in the Philippines. The less rain there was, the less hydroelectric power availability and thus the higher were electricity production costs. At the same time, less rain entailed higher ambient temperatures and thus greater demand for airconditioning. This is true for the whole country, and to all countries similarly situated. It is a double whammy indeed, for both supply and demand factors result in lower satisfaction at a much higher price.

From Nick Nichols I learned that Cyril del Callar of NPC had been quoted as saying that the current cloud-seeding operations were meant more to lower ambient temperatures, and thus lower airconditioning demand, rather than to increase the water levels in the dams of the hydropower facilities. Yet, the pronouncements of spokespeople of the departments of agriculture and of science of technology belie this. And so does the an article in the weekly newsletter of NPC, which clearly associates the cloud-seeding with attempts to elevate dam water levels.

I had a brief exchange with Cyril first to ask him whether there was any ‘optimal’ cloud-seeding effort level. Perhaps he did not appreciate the import of my question and said no. He said that in terms of NPC cash operations, the expenses were justified.

Now, if you follow me, why don’t we spend billions instead of a few million to induce rain? I am an advocate of science and economics and would thus suggest that government spend on cloud-seeding as much as and until the incremental costs exceed the marginal benefits. And, to my knowledge, we are far from there, although I need to study both the science and economics more thoroughly.

Incidentally, government spokesmen recently admitted that cloud-seeding operations could be concentrated on specific areas when clouds were favorable. That might buttress suspicions that government can exercise weather control to lessen attendance in poitical opposition rallies. Triple whammy!

New Inquirer columnists

I’m really glad the Inquirer continually upgrades its slate of columnists. Readers, at least those whom I interact with, had and have been complaining about the dominance of legal ‘experts’ and know it alls, including former justices of the high court with their sanctimonious and annoying catholic religiosity (I dare say that the Philippines cannot modernize without a fully secular Supreme Court).

The recent additions (never mind those whose space allocations have been diminished) are Mahar Mangahas of the Social Weather Stations and the Inquirer blogger John Nery. Both can attract more readers because they have more intelligent commentary and don’t insult readers with their laziness and outright dumbness.

Unfortunately, Mangahas could have been more circumspect and ethical instead of featuring what could easily be misinterpreted as a self-serving column in his inaugural column. (Disclosure: SWS is just a few hundred steps from my place and I have used its services in the past). Still, a more grounded analysis of social opinion is needed and Mangahas’s column will hopefully provide that. Also, his outfit can also probably provide more insights on how social opinions are shaped...

As for John Nery, all I can say is that he is diligent and provides a much-needed short-term institutional memory, sorely lacking in the country’s political scene.

I hope the Inquirer succeeds in stopping the decline of newspaper readership bedeviling all newspapers worldwide.

Also, I hope the producers of Manolo Quezon’s ANC program do something to spruce up the format of his ‘Explainer.’ It is easy to see the effort put into it but they should get more feedback and adjust. Otherwise, all the effort will be wasted. Last night’s on scams was useful but could have been designed much better.

Are Men Necessary?

ARE MEN NECESSARY?
(When Sexes Collide)
Maureen Dowd

(Berkley, 2005, 338 pp; $15)



When Maureen Dowd first ‘googled’ her name in the internet, she claims, the first return was a video of her giving Bill Clinton a job, probably because her coverage and commentary on Clinton’s impeachment and trial over the Monica Lewinsky affair were what clinched the Pulitzer for her in 1999, and she was perceived as critical of the deranged and hypocritical Ken Starr. But her ascerbic columns on the Bush dynasty and the stupid Republicans were what really caught my attention four or five years ago.

In ‘Are Men Necessary’ I am a bit disappointed but I had been forewarned. In her introduction she dowsed expectations with the usual warning that she was going to raise questions but did not necessarily have answers. To be fair, I still thoroughly enjoyed reading this book because the questions she raises are questions I also ask, as a man with doubtful claims as a feminist.

What strikes me as most relevant at this time is her ambivalence over Hillary and Bill. Although she castigates them both for their failings, and the latter for her betrayal of feminist principles and aspirations for pragmatic and other political aims, her liberal bias still shines through, and her bias is my bias too. If I understand Dowd, she would still probably prefer Hillary winning against the Republicans in 2008, although the timeframe in the book excludes the dawn and rise of Obama.

One thing which really confuses me about the dilemma over principles vs. pragmatism is that the opposing forces never really make their priorities clear, although the clash implies that there has to be a prioritization of principles which one holds dear and that pragmatism merely means that one gives up lower principles over higher ones, at any particular time. In practice, however, one may appeal to the lowest common denominator to get the support of a plurality or a majority to implement a common agenda.

The only solution I can propound at the moment is that ‘principles’ held by individuals and groups may not really be internally consistent and it will take some time to sort them out.

Take for example, Dowd’s plaint against the aspiration of western feminists to be ‘equal’ to men only to later find out that what men wanted was not worth it (at) all. For when the doors were opened, many actually opt to stay home as their version of fulfillment.

In the political sphere, the Philippines can superficially be called more advanced than the U.S. because we have already had two women presidents while there is still a ‘macho’ bias in the U.S. Dowd covered the campaign of Geraldine Ferraro for the vice presidency and recounts the experience in the book, from which I learned a lot of the details.

Yet, the Philippines remains an obviously backward country in terms of equality between genders. Even the so-called Left political parties---especially the party-list parties---are hesitant to advocate genuine divorce laws out of fear of the backlash from the Catholic church, of which many of them still swear allegiance to., and which is why the Philippines still remains as backward as ever. Obviously, gays and lesbians, according to segments of the Philippine Left, don’t belong in hell. But women who escape from unhappy marriages and abusive husbands do. And that is pragmatism.